The New Normal of China's Economy: Connotation and Measurement

Author: Institute of Quantitative &Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Translated by Wang Pinda

ISBN: 978-1-84464-579-4

Ebook ISBN: 978-1-84464-580-0

Hardback-94 Pages

February 2020

English

£80 €100 $130

Description:

Based on an examination of national and international background, this report analyzes the concept of China's New Normal Economy, emphasizing on its conceptual changes, economic theory foundations and its practical background. This report proposes that China's New Normal Economy is a new "market economy normal" during a time when the eight dividends (namely, the dividends of population, productivity, urbanization, economic structure, reform, resource, environment and net export) gradually shrink or vanish. Under the new normal, economic growth at the past super-high speed under "non-market economy normal" will slow down to ordinary speed under "market economy normal". The slowing down of economic growth would be gradual but irreversible. In order to maintain a stable and continuous economic growth under the new normal, this report provides seven strategic measures, including: comprehensive reform strategy to cope with shrinking reform dividend; information driven development strategy to cope with shrinking productivity dividend; human resource nurturing strategy to cope with shrinking population dividend; circular economy strategy to cope with resource and environmental dividends; substantial urbanization strategy to cope with shrinking urbanization dividend; manufacturing and emerging industries upgrading strategy to cope with shrinking structural dividend; and service and trade improvement strategy to cope with shrinking net export dividend.

Content:

About The Authors Chapter 1 The Practical Implications of the New Normal Economy Chapter 2 Every Country Has Its Own New Normal Chapter 3 China’s New Normal, Theory of Developmental Stages, and The Shrinking or Vanishing of Growth Dividends I. The origin of economic growth dividends II. Transformation of development stages and deepening of reforms causes the eight growth dividends to shrink or vanish Chapter 4 Distinguishing Between Normality, Abnormality and the New Normal I. Normality II. Abnormality III. Transformation between Normality, Abnormality and the New Normal Chapter 5 Policy Measures in the Face of New Normal I. The comprehensive reform strategy to cope with shrinking reform dividend II. The innovation-driven development strategy to cope with shrinking productivity dividend III. Implementing human resource nurturing strategy to cope with vanishing population dividend IV The circular economy strategy to cope with the vanishing environment dividend V The substantial urbanization strategy to cope with shrinking urbanization dividend VI The manufacturing and emerging industries upgrading strategy to cope with vanishing structural dividend VII The trade in services improvement strategy to cope with shrinking net export dividend References

About Authors:

Qi Jianguo, research professor and deputy director of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He is a doctoral advisor at the Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a member of the Expert Committee of the Joint Conference on National Strategic Emerging Industries, deputy managing director of Chinese Association of Quantitative Economics, honorary President of the School of Economics and Business at Chongqing Technology and Business University, head researcher of the circular economy evaluation project of Philosophy and Social Sciences Innovation Program at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. His research focuses mainly on circular economy, technological innovation, economic analysis and prediction. His works include Technological Innovation: Reform and Restructuring of the National System; Industrial Policy and Economic Growth; Research on Technological Progress and Structural Shifts; Analysis of the New Economy; Theories and Mechanisms of the Modern Circular Economy; Knowledge Economy and Management; Report on China’s Development of Circular Economy; Technological Economics and Applications; On the Deepening of Labor Theory of Value and Benefit Distribution in the Knowledge Economy; On the Acceleration of Change of Economic Development Mode; On the Social Welfare Effects of Innovation-driven Development; Contextual Analysis of China’s “New Normal” Economy; Connotation and Mechanism of China’s New Normal Economy; Circular Economy and Green Development: Calling for the Fourth Technological Revolution.

Li Wenjun, research professor and Head of the Industrial Technology Office of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, doctoral advisor at the Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, deputy director of the Research Center of Chinese Circular Economy and Environmental Evaluation. His research focuses mainly on finance and circular economy. His works include Macroeconomic Policies in Financial Crises: Effect Measurement and Exit Mechanism (2014); Technical Policies on Strategic Emerging Industries (2014); China’s Development of Strategic Emerging Industries (2012); RMB Exchange Rate and China’s International Trade (2012); Efficiency and Competitiveness of Commercial Banks (2008); Identification and Analysis of China’s High-growth Industries (2006); Efficiency of the Capital Market (2004).

Peng Xushu, associate research professor and deputy director of the Industrial Economy Office of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, deputy director of the Research Center of Chinese Circular Economy and Environmental Evaluation, director of China Hi-tech Industry Promotion Society. His research focuses on circular economy and technological innovation. He has participated in Major Projects of the National Social Science Fund, the Science and Technology Supporting Project of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, and Major Projects of Soft Sciences. His works include Relationship of Technological Progress and Employment in the United States; International Comparative Research on the Private Burden of Higher Education Investments; China’s Steel Industry: Controlling Exports or Leading the World?;Establishing Recycling System of Common Urban Waste; Low-Carbon Industrial Composition Based on Technical Economics Analysis; Report on China’s Development of Circular Economy.

Wang Hong, assistant research professor of the Industrial Economy Office of Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. His research focuses on circular economy and technical economy. His works include Synergy Effects of Circular Economy: Context, Connotation and Mechanism; Economic Thinking on the Control of PM-2.5 Emissions; Theoretical Analysis on Industrial-Agricultural Complex Circular Economy; Comparing the Energy Consumption of E-commerce and Traditional Commerce; Quantitative Analysis of Water Pricing and Social Welfare in a Circular Economy. He has participated in “Demonstration and Promotion of Water-saving Industrial and Agricultural Complex Circular Economy in Dingxi, Gansu” under the National Science and Technology Supporting Plan, and “Research on Carbon Circulation and Carbon Sink” under the Circular Economy Development Program of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. He has participated in the formulation of many circular economy development plans, using material flow analysis to study the resource and environmental impact of economic activity.

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